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Mobile Instant Messenger: The Power of
Presence |
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October 2005- Alicia
Wanless 416-413-3036, IGB Grant 514-849-3508 & Brian Sharwood 416-413-9381
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS: |
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- SeaBoard predicts that Mobile Instant Messaging will be Canada’s
single most successful wireless-data application. SeaBoard believes
that mobile instant
messaging represent over $100M p.a. to Canadian wireless carriers within
the next 24 months as MIM clients are rolled-out.
- PC-based Instant Messaging adoption has been an important example
of viral marketing success. Usage has doubled in 3 years: The number
of active
instant messaging
users in the U.S. has nearly doubled in the past two years (from some 47.1
million in 2002 to 86 million and growing in 2005 (see exhibit 1)).
- The inclusion of presence information is probably the most important
feature of IM. In a presence-based world the user decides and publicizes
when and
with whom they will communicate – likewise, users also see with whom
and by what means they may communicate with others.
- We believe that the average revenue for per message will drop post
introduction - due to competitive pressures and bundling (especially
from mobile instant
message bundles) – additionally, by the end of 2007 over 45% of
all IM messages will be sent will be through mobile IM clients – and
furthermore that this may even be a conservative estimate.
- IM represents
both opportunity and threat to the wireless carrier. The opportunity
lies in a significant new revenue stream — yet MIM is a threat
in that it offers users an alternative communications modality -- an
alternative to a phone call. We note that most PC-based IM clients
have already embedded voice services into IM client software. This
functionality
will work its way too to the mobile handset.
- For Canadian carriers we encourage adoption of three tenets for mobile
instant messaging success:
- Adopt simple pricing schemes. Allow for flexibility
to increase or decrease in the future. We suggest that you avoid
dizzying arrays
of
bundles.
- Deploy handsets which encourage messaging (ideally with
QWERTY keyboards)
- Encourage and market multi-portal clients on handsets. Your
customers are used to choice, they already have multi-client habits – the
quickest road to success is to mirror existing habits.
- Avoid leaving mobile instant messaging to junior marketing personnel.
MIM is an important application, don’t leave it to amateurs,
however gifted. Put muscle behind your bet.
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